Sunday, January 14, 2007

Moody Women & Yield Inversions

I am really looking forward to another (much needed) holiday, although I do not believe our country has fully arrived at a point where we can understand what MLK was trying to communicate. But then again, MLK was lightyears ahead of most people.

Today, the wife is cranky (non-PMS) and this may be a sign for me to get lost. I have plans to go to the gym and may head to the bookstore later. Yesterday she said that I always warn her about my mood changes etc. and that she appreciates it. Whatever.

Late last night I completed an investment article for an international publication on fatherhood. I was surprised that I was able to write it without many revisions. The wife helped edit the article which is always better than doing it yourself.

The 16% that the Dow gave last year is like what the casino gives. But you must remember that the house has the edge, and unless you know what you are doing, the house will take it all back. The bottomline is that investors should rebalance.

The bond market is telling us that things are going to be a little different in 2007. You can see this just by looking at the 2 year Treasury versus the 10 year and 30 year. The inversion has been around for several months and cannot be ignored. Yield inversions, if you recall, tend to precede recessions. And from what I have been reading the evidence pointing towards a downturn in mid to late 2007 is compelling.